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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans ascending together. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still